The latest ‘poll of polls’ by the Independent newspaper, published today, shows the Conservative Party has a lead of 14 points.

That would give the Tories a majority of 68 seats if the swing was uniform across the nation.

The weighted average of five polls last month puts the Tories on 40 per cent (up three points), Labour on 26 per cent (up two), the Liberal Democrats unchanged on 19 per cent and other parties on 15 per cent (down five).

The Independent report goes on to say:

The figures were based on the last polls before MPs left Westminster for their summer recess, including a ComRes survey for The Independent which put the Conservatives on 42 per cent and Labour on 24 per cent. The Conservatives have now enjoyed a consistent double-digit lead over Labour since the beginning of the year. John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, compiled the figures and said there appeared to have been a “decisive long-term shift in the public mood” since the spring last year. Last autumn’s recovery in Government support now seems to have been “little more than a temporary blip”, he said. “Labour evidently has a tough job on its hands to shift this now long-standing public mood once more.”

Support for other parties such as the UK Independence Party and the Greens reached a peak in June amid anger over the MPs’ expenses scandal.

A 68 seat margin was the same achieved by Tony Blair in 2005.

Reader comments

1. Liberal Conspiracy

   : Poll of polls: Tories on 68-seat majority http://bit.ly/102SeB

2. Duncan Cantor

   In the news: Newswire: Poll of polls: Tories on 68-seat majority: The latest ‘poll of polls’ by the .. http://bit.ly/xerz0

   [Original tweet]

3. Liberal Conspiracy

   : Poll of polls: Tories on 68-seat majority http://bit.ly/102SeB

   [Original tweet]

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.