Miliband should avoid falling for Ahmedinijad’s trap


by Sunny H    
June 28, 2009 at 9:16 pm

If your authority was being undermined by street protests and an election widely seen as rigged – what’s the best way of uniting people behind you? Why, starting a diplomatic row of course, with the hope it will escalate into a bigger show of force.

And this is Ahmedinijad’s obvious gambit as Iran arrested nine staff working at the UK embassy on suspicion they took part in the recent street protests. The EU has now threatened a “strong response” to Iranian harassment of EU staff. Which is obviously what Ahmedinijad wants.

This is a diplomatic headache because escalating the war of words helps Ahmedinijad. At the same time, not many of the protesters are likely to believe Ahmedinijad’s latest attempt at diverting attention. We can play this in two ways: by not making a big fuss and denying Ahmedinijad what he wants. He may then try and escalate the situation and will shoot himself in the foot or quietly release the staff. Or the EU could escalate this massively with a real threat of war very quickly, and asking him for evidence of his claims. That would force Ahmedinijad to back down and expose his stupid gambit. I prefer the first option. But a muddle of the two is unlikely to work.

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· About the author: Sunny Hundal is editor of Liberal Conspiracy. He works full time as a journalist, commentator, blogger, activist and general layabout. He was voted Guardian blogger of the year in 2006. Also at: Pickled Politics, on Twitter and Comment is free.

· Other posts by Sunny H

· Filed under: Blog , Foreign affairs , Middle East


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Reader comments

1. Denim Justice

How can the Foreign Sec not make a big fuss about the fact that the President of another country has ordered the arrest of British diplomatic staff?

If we ignore it, he will just go further and further until we have no option but to resort to option 2.

I think there’s a whole range of possibilities between the two you suggest: “not making a big fuss” or “escalate this massively with a real threat of war very quickly”.

3. Shatterface

What do you mean by ‘escalate into a bigger show of force’?

Britain isn’t going to launch an attack on Iran because there’s no money in it, and no matter how much the Iranian government might like a conflict with the UK to distract their population they are hardly in a position to declare a war with a European country half way round the world and closely allied to the US.

The point Sunny makes is pretty clear to me, Milliband doesn’t need to do any more than to condemn the arrests and treatment of diplomatic staff in Iran, while making it clear that he’ll be doing everything he can to ensure their safety. Doing this rather than making the biggest fuss on national TV in some kind of ego trip against Ahmedinijad means that there is much less opportunity for him to turn aorund to those in the middle ground in Iran and say “look, see, I was right…they are clearly out to get us”.

There are people in Iran doing amazing work to try and get a legitimate and transparent election, if we get all huffy and turn this in to an Iran vs the UK argument then we undermine what they are trying to achieve.

“Or the EU could escalate this massively with a real threat of war very quickly …”

To quote Captain Mainwearing : “I think you’re getting into the realms of fantasy there, Corporal …”

unseen – happy to hear other ideas on how this could progress.

Laban – I’m just merely stating the options available. The fact that declaring war isn’t a viable threat means rather than silly, angry posturing (which right-wingers will inevitably demand) would just play into Ahmedinijad’s hand.

Europe can’t threaten war because it has no army or centralised military command so that’s not an option…

“:which right-wingers will inevitably demand”

They already have in the US – for some strange reason the ‘pubs/GOP/Conservatives think that bombing the fuck out of Iran will solve the problem. How wrong they are.

All that needs to be said to the bonkers Anadinijahad/fascist bastard/mental case/ murderer – is that we will not comment – he is after what he can get from this fight, if there should be one – and Milibrand just may fall for, not just the nutcase over there, but the nutcases in the UK who want to bomb the daft get.

if Milliband wants to put the squeeze on Ahmedinijad would look at the economic option: in particular the bazaaris who provide financial support . The best option would be to ensure no western company sold high tech equipment and especially surveillance equipment (e.g Noka ) to Iran .By preventing Iran obtaining high tech equipment it hinders their development, especially their ability to undertake surveillance on the protestors.

10. Dunroamin

This comment is neither abusive, silly, or sarcastic. But what’s this about the EU threatening war?
I hope it’s not xenophobic to suugest that if the OTHER lot had got in., they wiould be all for working towards a nuclear bomb too, and they may even be up for kidnapping a few people.
Just suppose A. were as daft as Saddam and Comical Ali, should the EU bomb him?
I rather liked the scene in Moore’s ‘Fahrenheit 9/11′ where he confronts various US politician and asks them why, as they are so gung-ho for attacking Saddam, they’re not sending their sons out there to get him?
Sunny? Robert? This isn’t very liberal, is it?
When I was at school the Liberal Brigade only had to hear the term “English foreign policy” in a history lesson when they started sniggering and intoning in what they supposed to be a Victorian tone-of voice, “Oh Yarss! Ah – send a gunboat!”. You must be older than I thought.

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