Comments on: Euroelections: 1994 and now

By: David Boothroyd

David Boothroyd — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 16:04:40 +0000

At the time of the 1994 European elections, Blair had not yet been elected; Margaret Beckett was the leader pending the special conference in July. It’s fair to say though that there was a widespread feeling that Tony Blair would win the leadership election even though campaigning had been suspended until the EP elections were out of the way.

By: Charlie

Charlie — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 15:14:29 +0000

There does not appear to be the support for Cameron which Blair enjoyred post -95. Consequently , Johnson as PM and a slight pick up in the economy may result in the Tories with a 20-30 majority. Whatever party is in power, there will have to be massive cuts post 2010. Therefore, Labour could win a GE in 2014-205. However, if the Tories win a 100 seat plus majority , then they are likley to be in power for 8-12 years. I Cannot understand how Labour MPs have not removed Brown as his presence makes a 100 seat majority by the Tories far more likely. For Labour’s fortunes over the next 12 years , what they must prevent is a Tory majority of 100 plus seats as this combined with a lack of county councils makes the fight back far more difficult. If the Tory majority can be kept to 20 seats, a split over Europe could cause them to lose 10 or more MPs. Once a party only has a very small majority it can soon run out of energy and generally the country does not vote for tired parties.

By: Shatterface

Shatterface — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 18:53:40 +0000

I’ve been rather surprised by the success of Sweden’s Pirate Party, which puts the ‘rise’ of the BNP in the shade. I thought they were just a spoof but apparently they are already Sweden’s third largest party and stand on a platform of privacy and challenging intellectual property rights.

By: Aaron

Aaron — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 18:38:03 +0000

May I say this is beautifully written.

By: Stirring Up Apathy

Stirring Up Apathy — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 18:32:12 +0000

The problem is the votes that aren’t going to the Conservatives are going to the “Other” parties like the Greens, UKIP and, tragically, the BNP. However, it is extremely unlikely they will get any MP’s elected in the FPTP system – 1 or 2 if they can strike a chord on local issues in a couple of constituencys.

This is why the Tories won’t be worried. As long as it isn’t the Lib Dems picking up a large share of the Labour vote they will still have a large majority come the general election.

However it might be the case, that come the General Election the electorate will return to the mainstream parties, and for the Tories to have a large majority in the Commons they need to make sure they pick up most of the voters who voted for fringe parties in the recent elections.

Will be a difficult one to judge if things remain as they are.

By: Chris Williams

Chris Williams — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 16:48:18 +0000

On the other hand, I bet you that Cameron is wishing that he’d done as well as Blair in 1994. This is actually a pretty average performance by the Tories: they are not hoovering up the anti-Labour votes in the manner that Labour hoovered up the anti-Tory vote in 199x. They will make it into power in the next general election, but they are likely to do so on a mandate more like that of 2005 than that of 1997: best of a crap lot on a low turnout.

By: Lazy Students

Lazy Students — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 15:10:33 +0000

“If only Brown had done as well as Major” has got the most painfully depressing thing I’ve read all day.

By: Paranormal Guru

Paranormal Guru — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 07:27:58 +0000

Liberal Conspiracy » Euroelections: 1994 and now: About the author: Dave Osler is a regular contributor to Liber.. http://bit.ly/14BSh8