Prescience or good party contacts?

Simple prescience on this occasion – my contacts aren’t privy to that kind of information, worse luck…

I think this also shows the internal battle for the Labour inheritance has been won. David Miliband has been defeated in this strategic debate about party strategy and will therefore be defeated in any leadership election.

It looks to me like Douglas Alexander is picking up and pulling together all the different sides and he has used all these different strings to knot himself into a position to take over when Brown goes. So I think we can expect him to start to raise his profile at the expense of whoever else will be encouraged to put up a losing challenge (Miliband proabably, as he has already claimed the role of lead-out man for himself).

I think this also shows the internal battle for the Labour inheritance has been won.

I’m not convinced it’s over, it’s definitely a short term suspension of hostilities but you never know how things may change (another potentially damaging by election coming up too)…

Leon, I agree that the hostilities aren’t at an end, but I think we’ve passed through the decisive period and the outcome is now all but assured.

I expect Labour’s polls to start rising now that even the George Howarth’s of this world have been reined in, so will Brown actually win the next General election? If Brown prevents Cameron from becoming PM the Conservatives the prospects going forward suddenly change: Cameron will be hung out to dry, but having alienated so many members, they will be picking over the carcass of their party and will only be able to turn in on themselves.

I think this also shows the internal battle for the Labour inheritance has been won.

Not necessarily.

What it may do is cast Mandelson in the position of Kingmaker. Whether and to what extent Alexander or anyone else might benefit from that is open to question – it all depends very much on the outcome of the next election.

Unity,
so take any odds you can find for a Labour victory in 2010, it offers huge value.

I disagree that Mandelson is now kingmaker, he is just the lightening rod.

I disagree that the Glenrothes by-election will damage Brown any further unless the SNP win by a large margin and the Conservatives show they can also win votes from Labour at the same time (which they show no sign of being able to do).

I also disagree that anyone other than Alexander can benefit, as he must be credited with bringing together all the fractious camps to agree to work under his direction and is therefore in prime position to take over as leader when Brown goes if they lose power, or he will strengthen his internal standing and future leadership credentials if they win and Brown stays on.

Wee Dougie is in the right place at the right time, a sign of an expert operator. Should I also say that he is a better public performer than his contemporaries?

Ha!

Good call, Unity.

Oh, and if you have some luck with the Lotto, don’t forget your friends at LC. )

Hey Unity,

Off piste a bit, but wanted to say thanks for the timeshifting – much appreciated. It was an excellent abortion rights meeting – Laurie, Cath, Natalie and myself in attendance and plenty of others! We’ll all post over the next few days. Cheers & thanks again, Kate

Thomas @ 7,

I don’t quite understand what you are saying about Glenrothes. Largely speaking the opposition to Labour in Scotland has been the SNP, not the Tories. The Liberals appear to have some heartlands, but the Tories none, zero, nada.

Your best odds on the SNP at Glenrothes are 1:4. Bet against that at your peril!

Nothing is a done deal until the vote is cast, but I’d expect you to see Glenrothes as an SNP – GAIN in the teleprompter. What is hard to understand about that? I doubt the Tories or the Liberals will save their deposits….

I’d assume, correct me if I am wrong, that a huge swing to the SNP in the General Election would wipe out the Labour majority in the HoC. That swing – to the SNP- is likely to become greater the more likely it is that the Tories will capture a Westminster majority. You might have no idea how hated Thatcherism was up here, but it is enough to swing it, I think.

A prospective Tory government at Westminster is a huge boost to the SNP, with indefinable outcomes.

At least, that’s what I think.

dc,
in some quarters a loss at Glenrothes spells the end for Brown as PM. I disagree.

Firstly I don’t think it is certain that Labour will lose the seat, but – even if they do – for Brown’s position as PM to be fatally undermined, the indications from the by-election must point to the likelihood that Labour cannot win at a general election under Brown.

It is partly because the SNP are the challengers north of the border that a loss in Glenrothes is less of a threat to Brown. Unless the differential swings can be extrapolated across the country then they can’t help inform speculative views about the leadership.

So how the result of the Glenrothes by-election influences the feeling of stability in Downing Street depends more on the performance of Labour relative to the Conservatives. If the Conservatives gain a couple of percentage points to split any anti-Labour swing and Labour also lose the seat it starts to be significant, but if all opposition tactically unites around the nearest challenger it can easily be dismissed as a protest.

Having passed through the constituency in August I did get a sense Labour had already lost it long ago and though I thought there was a possibility the LibDems could’ve had a shot you’re probably correct they’ve deferred the fight in a preference for discretion before SNP valour.

I’m sorry you took my comment at a crossed purpose.