Most of the uber-Blairites have never had proper jobs and they rose up in the party purely on the basis of patronage and sucking up to the leadership. They can’t do that any more, which makes them angry, and a lot of them are likely to lose their seats in the election, which makes them even more angry. But they are career-minded indivdualists who are not used to oppositionalism or working collectively, which is why they have been so bad at plotting against Brown. They also do not have any base in the wider party – where they are generally loathed.

Miliband could force the issue by resigning, but my guess is that he doesn’t have the guts. Brown is, however, on borrowed time and so my guess is that all the key players will just sit out the winter and ditch him in the spring. It makes sense to get rid of Brown in April/May and possibly call an election on 11 June since that will be the day of the Euro poll. If Labour does not call an election on that day it will get a massive protest vote against it, which would fatally damage a new leader. If Brown is still leader by then that could be the justification for getting rid of him.

An election is not due until 2010 and Labour still has a healthy majority. When you compare things to Major’s government or Callaghan’s things are not actually that bad.

John Denham is someone to watch, incidentally.

Some have asked why Jon Cruddas has been sounding so overly supportive of Gordon Brown. I think this is a good decision. Many see him as the only viable left-of-centre challenger to Brown. But challenging Brown now is a poisoned chalice for Cruddas because its too early for him (and who wants to lead a party to almost certain defeat?), and its dangerous for Compass because then it will come under attack from the more Blairite faction Progress.

It looks more like a calculation along the lines of it’s better to have a weakened PM who you can push about than a new Blairite leader who’ll you’ll have no chance of influencing…