The LibDems should, by all rights of any conventional wisdom, have lost their deposit in such a situation, but they didn’t and hardly saw any decline at all. This suggests the third party are not a party of protest and have coalesced into a respectable fighting force with a solid core of voters. It is becoming increasingly difficult to write them off and discount their influence.

Sorry? Dismal? They picked up enough of a share in the local elections to make them the second most voted for party only a couple of weeks before, and it’s been widely criticised internally that they completely failed to adequately canvas for support and votes in the area.

But yes, we’ll agree to disagree, see who’s right come the polls in the future. But I don’t disagree that if they keep Brown they will lose the election, sooner they change from him the better.

I’d argue – and it’s something I think is significant, yet I’m not aware of anyone picking up on it – that the reason we know this wasn’t merely a protest vote is the dismal performance of the Lib Dems – the traditional repository of said protest.

In the final analysis, we’ll have to agree to disagree: my feeling at base isn’t based on evidence simply because, as you say, we can’t tell the future. But if the past is a guide to the future, Labour under Brown is doomed. I’ve written before that the Force is not with Gordon Brown. My feeling now is I greatly understated my case: the gods hate Gordon Brown.

It would help him if he could find one point of dispute within the party by which to challenge the elite and general membership, but he is so entwined within the fabric of the party that it is too closely constructed in his image for him to do so without injuring himself more.

His ability to dominate was his strength, now it is his weakness.

Brown’s ability to survive in power is now at odds with Labour’s – a crack will open up within the government or within the constitution.

Its possible. But he needs a different media narrative. And fast.

They suggest nothing other than at *this* point in time brown is particularly unpopular. It doesn’t tap in to whether or not people still intend to vote labour if brown repsonds to this “protest vote” positively, it doesn’t tell us whether or not it is even a protest vote. I admit I could be completely wrong on this, but the “sample” you talk about in polls tells us nothing other than what people in general wish to tell us of this particular moment in time, not of the future.

And let me say I don’t disagree that Labour could easily lose the election, and I wouldn’t bet heavily against your proposition…but I just don’t fall in to this idea that is being touted now that Labour can’t win, I just patently fail to believe (as a non-labour supporter) that they are that stupid. But then maybe others like me felt the same about the Tories in the late 90′s.

I would agree with you that ID cards are unpopular, I just don’t think they could be considered to be anything like the albatross round the party’s neck in the way that the poll tax was for the Tories. You could, I suppose, argue that the abolition of the 10p tax rate comes something close but this illustrates the mess Labour are in. They do, in my opinion, the right thing; borrow money and raise the threshold for allowances. And what happens? They get no benefit from it all – absolutely none.

With regards the second point (“small sample, annecdotal I know, but these are my feelings”) the larger more objectively gathered samples suggest that you’re wrong: Cameron is outstripping Brown on practically every indicator of popularity in the opinion polls. In retrospect, if anything I’ve understated my case. There seems to be some evidence that Labour is losing it’s reputation for economic competence. I’ll indulge in a little soothsaying and argue that this is going to prove fatal for Labour in 2010.

Blair also promised some real changes (that perhaps weren’t all delivered) from the tory government that literally did not have any new ideas and were floundering. He also had a really lucky time with global economy and a chancellor that could deal with the day to day problems that may have been thrown up. All in all Labour have had a relatively easy decade (taking “terrorism” out of it, which tbh hasn’t really tasked them as much as made them look like authoritarian overlords) with some poor choices that have sapped their majority.

Labour, I feel, could still actually have some ideas in there if they weren’t afraid to move away from Brown…a guy that has shown he has no ambition for the year ahead other than to press on with illiberal policies. Maybe I’m wrong but really…is there a better situation available by sticking with him? Tories on the other hand don’t have anything right now. I’m assuming that will change in roughly 12 months time as there is no need to rush and the ball is in Labour’s court now.

But while you may “see a pattern” in the way Labour is (though I don’t, I see traditional unrest with a party that is the most unpopular it’s recorded as being, which you’d expect in ANY party), I just see that it is time for Labour to ask themselves some serious questions.

1) Can Brown *really* reingage with a public that don’t like him, just flat out don’t like him?
2) Do the public really care if you change leader from someone that they don’t like? I’d contest they don’t
3) Do they have some people ready to take charge with new ideas that are actually at least slightly close to what their core and occasional voters want?

Um, this is not a Liberal as in a Libdem blog. That said, this is neither a Labour blog.

When Blair was Leader, Labour wanted to get rid of him to regain its popularity. A year later, Brown is Leader and some in Labour want to get rid of him to regain their popularity. I can see a pattern here.

I know that many people are happy to condemn Cameron as a Thatcherite with a human face – but the same was said about Blair, and he won three landslides in a row.

I would have to disagree here entirely without some kind of evidence to back up what you’re saying on the second point, and emphatically with your first point.

Firstly. 10p tax and ID cards come to mind as single issues which are wholely and widely unpopular (and would be more with a co-ordinated information campaign), and lots of lesser issues together such as 42 days, alcohol pricing, lack of action on energy prices, lack of movement on fuel allowance, determination to tax for petrol in a rapidly inflating market…can all add up to one whole raft of positive reform. I don’t believe Gordon has the stones to change these things as he’s been intrinsic in their formation, but that’s not to say that some new leader coming in in 6 months time couldn’t see the light and do a *real* rescinding of policy, not just some for show stuff for the upper middle classes like Brown did, and honestly reboot labour as the party for the common person and for social justice. If they did this they could more than match the feat of John Major I feel. Why?

Because I feel on your second point that you’re wrong. No-one I’ve talked to or heard talking (small sample, annecdotal I know, but these are my feelings) have ever said the Tories are doing something new, or better, or have changed their spots. They are simply saying they are the best of a bad bunch, that they are not as crap as those already in power. As Alix has said (I believe), right now they don’t have any policies outside of inheretence tax, everything else is just wishy washy, and the electorate know (and come to realise every time) that when it comes down to the crunch Cameron announces a lot of thatcherite policies to keep the core voters happy while praying his personality retains those he’s conned in to thinking he’s some kind of liberal.

No, Labour still have everything to play for over the next two years and it is not beyond them to win the next election, even if margins will be small or a co-allition may need to be formed…but they need to actually start acting intelligently, something they seem to have been devoid of since Blair left and probably for a few years before he did too.

I remember John Major very well – this is why you are wrong. John Major was more popular than his party. Gordon Brown is not more popular than his party. John Major’s administration got rid of the Tories’ most unpopular policy – the poll tax. No such option is available to Brown. Major won because apart from anything else, Labour had failed to convince the electorate that they had changed. David Cameron has successfully convinced the electorate that the Tories have changed. John Major won a leadership election – twice. Gordon Brown received a coronation and has, I would argue, never won a competitive election in his life. John Major won a General Election. Gordon Brown doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell…

I disagree completely with this. The public aren’t stupid, and while they don’t necessarily trust new leaders implicitly…especially in a time of party chaos…they don’t shun those that are seen to be doing well. Clegg has had a very good amount of press and a good amount of positive feedback as a new leader despite Lib Dem’s being seen as inconsistent in their leadership. If Labour were to start proceedings to get rid of Brown tomorrow so that a new leader was in place post-henley by-election and actually managed public relations well they could easily regain enough momentum in the short time leading up to an election to edge a win.

What would such a new leader need to do? Distance themselves properly from Brown and Blair. No need to disparage them but certainly a “then and now” rhetoric needs to be employed. Next the leader needs to make it clear from the very first day that the election is coming as the people want and name the date, something Brown should have done in hindsight to secure his parties power. Then finally they need to simply stop fucking rocking the boat. Labour doesn’t need as many of these big ideas they have at the moment, certainly not when so many of them are controversial and looking to fail.

You look to the year ahead and as soon as one controversial bill is done such as extreme porn we move on to abortions, then on to pre-charge detention, then databases of every email and phone call if officials get their way. Stick to what they’ve been good at previously, and stick to the mantra that got them in power in the first place, it’s a shame so many of them have lost their way and have completely failed to deliver on manifesto points that are even a decade old now!

It’s really not hard to see why Brown is failing (I’ve been bleating on about him since January, and would really call myself an intensive political analyst!), especially when on top of all this you add his character flaws being so easily played up by decisions to reverse cannabis grading and to not go ahead with super casino’s….two things by the way which I guarantee are only going to strike against traditional and sympathetic labour support. All in all the government is a shambles because they have *clearly* changed direction from Blair, for all that so many hate him for with the war, and done so to try and occupy conservatives territory as if that was ever a sound tactic.

Alix: Hey, don’t we all wish we had that magic bullet I think Clegg and co are doing much better than any other Lib Dem team I must say…I think on the BBC website it was actually Clegg and not Cameron who had the main quote in the article after the local election results…so basically more of the same I guess?

And now Lawson bleats about the Government’s strategy and bad tactics in Crewe and Nantwich…

No I haven’t put money on it

I do not think the situation is irredeemable – remember John Major. The reason the Tories won the 1992 election was that Labour still had nothing to offer. In that respect they are like the Tories now.

I agree that any potential leader in the Labour Party should bide his time but given half an opportunity I think there are several who would bite (not, I think, including Boy Milliband.) I think a leadership election in the autumn could at least do no harm.

As for the Lib Dems, I agree, and if you have any suggestions as to how to break said current trend, let’s hear them! The current ruling generation of the meedja machine just hates us because we don’t fit with any of their left-right paradigms. No way round that.

Lib Dems have policies, sure, but what they need is to find a way to break the current trend that it is Cameron the BBC and others go to when wanting an opinion from “the opposition”, only then might people realise they care too.

I think you’re right, a lot of it may be down to the “cycle” of power where those that get disenfranchised jump ship ever decade or so to the other side, but ultimately right now Labour is making people like myself think that the Tories would actually be a minor step up. Of course ultimately that’s not saying the tories are a good choice, just the better of two evils.

Nobody loves me on CiF at the moment (probably because I’m in slag off allcomers mode), so I’ll offer my analysis on this para here instead, like the Critical Friend I am…

I’d argue it’s much, much simpler than th’above. You just need to highlight over and over again that the Tories *don’t have any* policies.

I’m in favour of cutting taxes and shrinking the state as well, but the Lib Dems are the only party actually promising these things (along with the commitment to tackling inequality).

Frankly, you’re on to a loser with the anti-tax cuts and anti-state shrinkage arguments. For Labour to rail against tax cuts now will only reinforce people’s perception that they just don’t care about the poor any more. As for size of the state – can you not see the connection between the importance Labour attach to it and the authoritarian twilight of the ghastly Ms Smith? That police harrassing youths announcement was, as you point out, the most horrifying thing yet.

The Tories known policies as they stand are:

1. Possibly raising the inheritance tax threshold to a £1m (abandoned)
2. Scrapping ID cards (good if you’re a Lib Dem)
3. So Nadine assures us, reducing the abortion limit.

Three policies is just pathetic. And two of them are not a program for any sort of progressive government. This is what Labour needs to hit out at.

Not that the Tories are ideologically wrong, because NuLabour’s ideology, sorry guys, is bankrupt. That they’re still windbagging twats who assume that all they have to do is *say* that they *really do* appreciate the problems of the low earner and all the low earners will bow and scrape in gratitude.

Not sure why I’m giving you people advice. I’d put up with almost any government to get rid of Jacqui Smith. I’m too nice to you, that’s my problem.

It is what you do when trying to win an election. Concentrating on your core vote is what you do when you are trying to survive an election.

It is sensible only when you accept that the other lot are going to win in a landslide.